Consumer electronics photovoltaic demand tin price is expected to continue to rise...


In October 12th, Tin shares issued before 2017 three quarter results, the first three quarters of the company owned by the parent net profit of 529 million yuan to 559 million yuan, 9.36 times over the same period last year to 9.88 times in the third quarter, owned by the parent net profit of 170 million yuan to 200 million yuan, 3.38 times over the same period last year to 3.98 times.

Tin industry leading, continuous expansion of zinc, indium business. The company's metal reserves are 800 thousand tons of tin, 1 million 50 thousand tons of copper and 3 million 150 thousand tons of zinc. The company is the largest tin producer in the world. The domestic market share of tin metal in 2016 is 46.86%, and the global market share is 22.64%. The company now has 80 thousand tons of tin ingot production capacity, 24 thousand tons of tin chemical production capacity, 38 thousand tons of tin metal production capacity and 100 thousand tons of copper smelting capacity. In 2016, non trade tin ingot production of 37 thousand tons, 26 thousand tons of tin tin timber production, chemical production of 20 thousand tons, 100 thousand tons of copper cathode production, zinc concentrate production of 110 thousand tons (metal tons). In June 2016 the company announcement given by the project, involving the construction of 100 thousand tons of zinc, 60 tons of indium smelting projects, the construction period is 2 years, after the completion of the project is expected to zinc and indium annual output will reach 102 thousand and 200 tons and 87.40 tons, estimated in accordance with the prevailing price, year after completion of the project to create 230 million yuan net profit after tax.

The tin supply inflection point in Indonesia and Burma has been present, and the follow-up supply is insufficient. Over the past few years, Burma has produced a lot of rich ore with a surface taste of more than 5%, and its rich ore has been rapidly depleted. Now it has been transferred to the low grade ore mining, and the cost has risen sharply. In addition, the static reserve / exploitation ratio of Burma is only 11 years, and the follow-up supply is weak. Since 2017, China's import of tin ore and tin concentrate from Burma has been in a state of decline. Indonesia is also facing the problem of the decline of tin mine's taste. The superimposed government has restricted the mining to protect tin resources. The output of tin ore in Indonesia has been decreasing from 10 thousand tons / month in 2006 to 5000 tons / month now.

The terminal demand of electronic and photovoltaic pull tin. 60% of tin consumption is tin solder, and electronic products are one of the main downstream. The consumer electronics industry is relatively mature, the annual growth rate is about 2%-5%, but with the rapid development of the emerging fields such as automotive electronics and wearable devices, the growth of consumer electronics has also picked up. In addition, the connection between the photovoltaic cell can also be used with 1MW solder, tin metal PV need to consume 120-140 kg, in 2016 the global PV installed capacity reached 77GW, is expected to reach 85GW this year, consumption of 11 thousand tons of tin, with the rapid growth of the global PV installed capacity, the future will become one of the main consumption growth of tin the point.

Zinc mine processing fees fall again, the supply is weak, the demand is steady growth, the high level of zinc price climb. September zinc processing fee of TC/RC fell again, to verify zinc ore supply is weak, at the same time as of August compared to the same period of China's infrastructure investment growth of 16%, 9 months, the United States and Europe manufacturing PMI rose to 52.4, 60.8 and 58.1, steady growth in demand for infrastructure investment and manufacturing industry strong pull zinc. We expect the zinc price to be maintained at a high level.

The global copper mine supply inflection point has emerged, and no large-scale mines were put into operation before 2020. Long production cycle of copper mines, 4-5 years from the capital expenditure to launch capacity, in 2011 30 of the world's major mining company's capital expenditure reached its peak, followed by a rapid decline, it also reached a peak in 2015-2016 years of new global copper production capacity, will decline year by year. The ten largest copper companies in the world, except Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, have had new capacity since 2020, and the rest of the companies have no expansion plan. Copper prices are expected to continue to rise under the steady growth of copper demand.